NEW DELHI: For the first time since Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi swept to power six years ago, signs are emerging that his seemingly unshakable hold over legions of migrant workers may be slipping.
Over the last two months reports have poured in from across the country about the suffering of those who lost their incomes almost overnight when Modi announced a nationwide lockdown. Now anger is starting to surface in key states at a leader who just last year won his second term in office with a sweeping majority.
"Why did he abandon us?" Jammun Jha, a textile factory worker who lost his job in the northern town of Noida, asked of Modi. The 50-year-old had been trying to get on a bus to his village on May 29, some 1,200 kilometers (750 miles) away in the eastern state of Bihar.
"The Modi government did very little for us this time," said Jha, who voted for Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party last year. "Surely, people who have suffered like me will remember what we have had go through when we vote next."
So far, the shifting sentiments are mostly anecdotal: No credible surveys have tapped the views of the more than 100 million migrant workers living in India. Modi has enjoyed high approval ratings for his handling of the virus, he retains a solid majority in the national parliament, a weak opposition remains largely ineffective and he doesn't need to call a general election until 2024.
Covid-19: Live updates
But a wider shift in attitudes among voters like Jha poses a risk in state elections over the next 12 months, which could start to erode the BJP-led coalition's strength in the upper house of parliament. The lockdown has largely failed to stem the virus in major cities like Mumbai and Delhi, and prolonged unemployment is starting to boost tensions.
More on Covid-19
The first test for Modi will come by November in Bihar, the country's largest source of migrant labor, which is currently ruled by a coalition that includes his BJP. As one of India's poorest and most populous states, it also has outsize significance as a political bellwether.
"It's too early to say whether or not this will impact Prime Minister Modi's political fortunes," said Akhil Bery, South Asia analyst at risk consultancy Eurasia Group, said by email. "There is the potential for this to negatively impact the Bihar elections — if the opposition is able to come together again."
Kicking off the BJP's election campaign in Bihar on Sunday, Home Minister Amit Shah — Modi's right-hand man — signaled the ruling party was sensitive to criticisms of its treatment of migrant workers. While predicting the government would be returned with a two-thirds majority, Shah urged them to ignore opposition leaders who criticize Modi's response.
"You should distance yourself from these talks, especially migrant workers," Shah said. "Remember, the whole country appreciates you."
These laborers make up nearly one-fifth of India's workforce, building its cities and running its factories. Their anguish has been a constant backdrop of the country's coronavirus response since Modi announced a lockdown from March 25 with just four hours notice, leaving many stranded with no cash and no support from local authorities.
One policy misstep that may hurt the administration in places like Bihar was a plan to use special trains to ferry workers home cities to rural villages. It started only a month into the lockdown and has been mired in chaos and tragedy.
Many people had no choice but to walk or cycle hundreds of kilometers, dragging luggage and carrying children on their shoulders. One desperate group traveled inside the cavity of a cement mixer. Hundreds perished on the way of starvation and accidents, including a group of migrant workers walking along railway tracks who fell asleep and were run over by a train.
"These migrants used to speak highly of Modi, but now they are very critical of him," said Shaibal Gupta, an economist and founder of the Asian Development Research Institute in Bihar, a not-for-profit organization that specializes in economics, politics and development. Their discontent at the "raw deal" they received from the government will have an impact on the election in Bihar, he said: "They will vote against Modi's party and his coalition partner."
There have already been outbreaks of social unrest. In the city of Surat in Modi's home state of Gujarat, policRead More – Source
NEW DELHI: For the first time since Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi swept to power six years ago, signs are emerging that his seemingly unshakable hold over legions of migrant workers may be slipping.
Over the last two months reports have poured in from across the country about the suffering of those who lost their incomes almost overnight when Modi announced a nationwide lockdown. Now anger is starting to surface in key states at a leader who just last year won his second term in office with a sweeping majority.
"Why did he abandon us?" Jammun Jha, a textile factory worker who lost his job in the northern town of Noida, asked of Modi. The 50-year-old had been trying to get on a bus to his village on May 29, some 1,200 kilometers (750 miles) away in the eastern state of Bihar.
"The Modi government did very little for us this time," said Jha, who voted for Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party last year. "Surely, people who have suffered like me will remember what we have had go through when we vote next."
So far, the shifting sentiments are mostly anecdotal: No credible surveys have tapped the views of the more than 100 million migrant workers living in India. Modi has enjoyed high approval ratings for his handling of the virus, he retains a solid majority in the national parliament, a weak opposition remains largely ineffective and he doesn't need to call a general election until 2024.
Covid-19: Live updates
But a wider shift in attitudes among voters like Jha poses a risk in state elections over the next 12 months, which could start to erode the BJP-led coalition's strength in the upper house of parliament. The lockdown has largely failed to stem the virus in major cities like Mumbai and Delhi, and prolonged unemployment is starting to boost tensions.
More on Covid-19
The first test for Modi will come by November in Bihar, the country's largest source of migrant labor, which is currently ruled by a coalition that includes his BJP. As one of India's poorest and most populous states, it also has outsize significance as a political bellwether.
"It's too early to say whether or not this will impact Prime Minister Modi's political fortunes," said Akhil Bery, South Asia analyst at risk consultancy Eurasia Group, said by email. "There is the potential for this to negatively impact the Bihar elections — if the opposition is able to come together again."
Kicking off the BJP's election campaign in Bihar on Sunday, Home Minister Amit Shah — Modi's right-hand man — signaled the ruling party was sensitive to criticisms of its treatment of migrant workers. While predicting the government would be returned with a two-thirds majority, Shah urged them to ignore opposition leaders who criticize Modi's response.
"You should distance yourself from these talks, especially migrant workers," Shah said. "Remember, the whole country appreciates you."
These laborers make up nearly one-fifth of India's workforce, building its cities and running its factories. Their anguish has been a constant backdrop of the country's coronavirus response since Modi announced a lockdown from March 25 with just four hours notice, leaving many stranded with no cash and no support from local authorities.
One policy misstep that may hurt the administration in places like Bihar was a plan to use special trains to ferry workers home cities to rural villages. It started only a month into the lockdown and has been mired in chaos and tragedy.
Many people had no choice but to walk or cycle hundreds of kilometers, dragging luggage and carrying children on their shoulders. One desperate group traveled inside the cavity of a cement mixer. Hundreds perished on the way of starvation and accidents, including a group of migrant workers walking along railway tracks who fell asleep and were run over by a train.
"These migrants used to speak highly of Modi, but now they are very critical of him," said Shaibal Gupta, an economist and founder of the Asian Development Research Institute in Bihar, a not-for-profit organization that specializes in economics, politics and development. Their discontent at the "raw deal" they received from the government will have an impact on the election in Bihar, he said: "They will vote against Modi's party and his coalition partner."
There have already been outbreaks of social unrest. In the city of Surat in Modi's home state of Gujarat, policRead More – Source
